We are delighted to be relaunching the Weather Rescue project for British Science Week 2019 on 8th March!
This time we are travelling back in time to the 1860s, when coordinated weather observations were just beginning. Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy had established the Met Office to provide storm warnings to sailors. To enable this he sent weather measurement instruments to various UK locations so that the weather could be continuously monitored. The daily observations were sent by telegraph back to London each morning and were collated by FitzRoy. From February 1861 FitzRoy was using these observations to make the very first storm warnings, and by August 1861 these had become general weather ‘forecasts’ – a word he invented for this purpose!
The original records are held by the Met Office and have been scanned. These are the images you will see, containing the carefully handwritten observations, but they have never been digitised.
We would like your help to transcribe the pressure, temperature and rainfall observations contained in the documents so that meteorologists and climate scientists can finally use them.
Visit the Weather Rescue website from 8th March to help us!
The pressure observations that are being rescued will have a large demonstrable effect on our knowledge of past weather.
In the graphic below, the left hand side always shows our current estimates of the locations of the isobars (lines of equal pressure) for 9am on 26th February 1903. There are 80 different sets of lines, each of which are considered equally likely given the information currently available. There is not much agreement over western Europe, so it looks very messy!
The animation on the right hand side shows how confident we become when individual observations (red dots) are added one by one. Starting in southern Europe the isobars gradually begin to become better defined until a much clearer picture emerges when all 55 newly rescued observations have been added.
We will be repeating this process for the whole 1900-1910 period that we are rescuing data for so that we can see the improvements in detail. This will demonstrate the value of this data for answering interesting science questions about how the circulation of the atmosphere varies over time.
An analogy is that we currently have blurred ‘polaroid’ pictures of the weather at this time, but gradually we are sharpening the image. As we add observations the picture becomes more like a digital photo.
[Very technical details: this animation uses all 80 members from v3 of the 20th Century Reanalysis and an offline version of the Ensemble Kalman Filter to assimilate the new observations.]
1644 volunteers have now helped rescue over 1 million daily weather observations from 61 locations all over Europe during 1900-1906! Thank you!
Grey regions indicate where there is missing or uncertain data. Often this will be due to a station joining or leaving the Daily Weather Report logs. Some of these gaps will be filled in during the quality control phase of the project.
More Weather Rescue science results to come very soon, but in the meantime you can enjoy this poem written especially for citizen scientists on the zooniverse, of which Weather Rescue is part.
The Weather Rescue volunteers have now rescued all the observations written in the Daily Weather Reports for 1900-1903, so it’s time to have a closer look at some of the data. We’ve picked October 1903 as this is the wettest month ever recorded in the UK.
The video below, made by Philip Brohan, looks complicated at first. The left hand side shows an animation of our previous understanding of the atmospheric pressure, for every hour during October 1903. This is produced using a modern weather forecasting model, but the simulations do not include the information in the new rescued observations, which are shown as the red dots.
There are several blue lines on the map (looking a bit like spaghetti!) which show the pressure in different simulations of the past. Because we don’t currently have that many observations to constrain the weather patterns there is a lot of uncertainty about where some of the pressure features are. The thicker black lines show the pressure contours where we are more confident.
The right hand side lists the weather stations in the Daily Weather Reports, and the red bars show the rescued pressure observations. The blue dots show the different simulations for that location and time.
There are lots of interesting features to note. You may notice that the maps often have a sharp adjustment – these are the times at which the existing data is ‘assimilated’ into the simulations. Often the blue dots in the right hand panel show a wide range – when the new observations are included then this uncertainty will reduce substantially. Sometimes the existing simulations (blue dots) are close to the new observations (red bars), but often not. It is these occasions where the new data has most value, and we expect the blue ‘spaghetti’ lines to become much closer to each other.
Importantly, the improvements will be largest when low pressure storms are passing near the stations. We want to learn about the frequency of intense storms in the past to compare with now and these rescued observations will significantly improve our understanding.
We have also made an animation of the rainfall data rescued so far in 1903. Note October in particular as being a very wet month for the UK!
On the evening of 22nd January 1901 Queen Victoria died after reigning over the UK since 1837. On the same day, a ‘hurricane’ killed 35 people in Herøy in north-western Norway. What can we understand about the weather that long ago?
We now have the ability to reconstruct the weather on any particular day as far back as 1900 (at least) by combining our modern weather forecast models with the available measurements from the day in question. But, the further back in time we look, the more uncertain we are, as the available observations become fewer. Continue reading
After just 10 weeks, the 3656 Operation Weather Rescue volunteers have completed the transcription of all the hourly rainfall, temperature and pressure data taken on Ben Nevis and in Fort William between 1883 and 1904!
There was skepticism from many about whether this citizen science approach to rescuing historical weather data would work.
It has. And, it has far exceeded our expectations.
The amazing volunteers have given their time and made a real difference to our understanding of past weather and climate. Thank you. Continue reading
41311 days have elapsed since the Ben Nevis weather observatory shut at the end of September 1904.
And now there is a weather station at the summit again!
BBC article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41918646
Listen to BBC radio piece: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05mhqj5
Short video and photos taken by mountain guide Ron Walker of the weather station installation
Lots more pictures & longer video, including the ruins of the old observatory: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RshYT9bgUxHAbv7uS-nB4cKGh2tbgOJF
STV article: https://stv.tv/news/north/1401809-station-on-ben-nevis-records-weather-for-first-time-since-1904/
In late February 1903, a large storm came across Ireland and Scotland. It is believed to have inspired a small passage in the novel Ulysses by James Joyce:
O yes, J.J. O’Molloy said eagerly. Lady Dudley was walking home through the park to see all the trees that were blown down by that cyclone last year and thought she’d buy a view of Dublin.
The storm caused structural damage to many regions, and uprooted trees.
Our current best view of the storm comes from the 20th Century Reanalysis – this is essentially a modern weather forecast model used to simulate past weather by filling in the gaps between the fairly limited observations available. Continue reading
The volunteers have finished the transcriptions for rainfall for the 1893-1904 period and we are now carefully checking the data. As an example, the graphic below shows the rainfall for every hour during 1897, shown in a circle. January 1st is at the top, and you can follow the data clockwise through the year.